Thursday, January 20, 2011


Weather reports like this are common hereabouts:

I've also noticed that when we are in a -40 cold snap, they never say it will be -40 for longer than two days. Every day, they push back the time when temperatures will come up, so it's always two days out. Finally, when temperatures do come up, everyone says, "Ah... the weather report was accurate after all! Two days ago, they said temperatures would come up, and they did!"

The thing is, a cold snap that lasts, say, 8 days still makes for an error of 400 percent, but no-one thinks of that. They just say, "Oh, the prediction happened late, but it still happened!" Although it makes no sense whatsoever to give credit to a meteorologist for predicting that temperatures would someday come above -40. If nothing else, it has to come above -40 in, say, May.

1 comment:

flying fish said...

The Weather Underground 5 day forecast for Haines, AK is always off. Usually the forecast high is much lower than the current temperature...currently 38 rainy degrees, forecast says high is 31. Annoying but fun to watch.